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I have shared versions of this same perspective and data for over 20 years as a college counselor. The difference is that when I showed folks in 2004 that Ivy admission rates were incomprehensible, they were still admitting at percentages now occupied by places like Holy Cross, Babson and Lafayette, as seen in this sobering infographic!
This is the time of year when lists seems to mysteriously reshape themselves and become more and more imbalanced with places that are, frankly, universally "unlikely" for any student to be admitted to. It is a fact that the sub 5% likelihoods of many of the name-brand colleges are genuinely beyond our scope as humans to comprehend. The worst comments I hear each year are along the lines of, "It doesn't hurt to try," and, "It's all a crapshoot, so why not?"
Highly selective college admission is only a crapshoot if the colleges are the House, they made the dice, they heavily weighted them in their own favor, and they roll them behind a screen you can't see, while looking at all of your personal and financial data, alongside a list of institutional preferences they are looking for among the tens of thousands of valedictorians and otherwise internationally accomplished/ or genuinely "unlikely" students that they'll deny. (Bill Fitzsimmons, Harvard admission dean for most of my lifetime, once told me that it's not hard to know who they'll admit; it's students whose story and existence are altogther improbable. I think that's helpful to know when you consider how they review applications.)
Meanwhile, for every student, there are amazing, undergraduate teaching and learning focused institutions (I know EXACTLY which ones the author describes as "sunny" here) that are accessible, affordable, and life-changing, based on the factors that data show actually make a difference. You can begin to identify some of these just by looking here and sorting for Baccalaureate and Master's Granting by area.
I provide lots of data to my clients via College Kickstart and other resources... now is the time of year to look to what genuinely matters in a daily, lived college experience and balance those college lists to provide a happy set of viable options in April, versus a lot of work, expense, and potential frustration.
Next, I am going to tell you that I visit a LOT of colleges every year and that many of my favorites are not at the top of US News and World Reports rankings. My favorites are sunny places, and I do not necessarily mean the weather, where I see smiling faces and students engaged in learning but also engaged with each other. I personally believe college is about WAY more than academics. It is about kids learning to navigate their way in the world, often for the first time without their parents. This is a dire plea: please get your students out there to see campuses. Try and plan visits for when students will be on campus as it is so much more informative. Try not to be so focused on names you have heard of, low acceptance rates, or where everyone else is looking, and instead focus on where you will learn, meet people you like, and enjoy yourself. I promise you will be surprised by what you discover if you open your search.
A college is not better just because it is harder to get into. It is human nature that if someone else wants something, then maybe you should want it too. It must be better. The more selective a college is, the more desirable it becomes. I can point to numerous colleges that just in the last two or three years have cut their acceptance rate in half – and they are the exact same college they were just a couple of years ago (they might even be a worse experience because now they have a housing shortage due to increased demand!). People all of sudden attach value to it that has nothing to do with the actual college itself. People think if a college is not hard to get into then it must not be any good, and that is simply untrue. DON'T LET YOURSELF GET SUCKED INTO THIS!!
And, here's good advice on focusing on what you can control. Trust me, you'll be much happier with the college application process, your results, and your college experience.
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